Where the Portland Multifamily Market Stands in 2026
Over the last several years, Portland absorbed a disproportionate amount of negative sentiment: governance concerns, out-migration narratives, remote work fears. Capital stepped aside, development stalled, and pricing corrected hard.
That combination created a perfect storm. Developers pulled back. Capital paused. Very few groups were willing to deploy money into land acquisition or early-stage development, because it became difficult to justify purchasing non-income producing land that simply didn’t have a clear exit strategy.
At the same time, the employment base quietly stabilized and began reinvesting at scale — largely outside of the headlines.
Large employers don’t spend billions on expansions if they expect long-term decline.
Intel just completed a $3 billion plant expansion and is planning an additional $3 billion investment.
Nike finished a 1.4 million square foot office expansion.
OHSU wrapped up a $610 million expansion that will generate approximately 3,000 new jobs by 2026.
The Oregon Employment Department projects Portland tri-county employment growth of 7% by 2034.
At the same time, the housing pipeline collapsed to levels last seen more than a decade ago. New construction is now materially below household formation and replacement demand, while absorption has outpaced deliveries for multiple consecutive quarters.
As developers stepped to the sidelines, something predictable happened: high-quality land started trading at meaningful discounts.
Over the past 36 months, Seneca was able to acquire sites at a fraction of prior pricing—sometimes as much as sixty cents on the dollar—with little to no competition. These were well-located sites, with strong zoning and a clear tenant profile. That was the first piece of the puzzle
Supply Fell — Demand Didn’t
The most important shift isn’t sentiment. It’s math.
New construction is now running at levels last seen more than a decade ago, well below normalized demand. Permitting and starts have dropped so far that the pipeline is effectively constrained for several years.
Meanwhile, absorption is materially outpacing deliveries.
In Q2 2025 alone, roughly 2,600 multifamily units were absorbed across the metro while only about 1,100 units delivered — absorption running more than 2x new supply. That dynamic has persisted across multiple quarters.
That’s not speculative demand. That’s households forming, renting, and staying — in a market most people still assume is “uninvestable.”
When new supply slows for several years, the downstream effects are predictable: faster lease-ups, stronger year-over-year rent growth, and more stable operating assets over time.
Capital Is Moving Before Pricing Does
Transaction volume rebounded sharply last quarter, with multifamily deal flow up materially year over year. Institutional buyers are re-entering quietly — which is typical. Volume moves first. Pricing follows later.
Migration trends have also improved at the margin. Net inflows turned positive over the past year, and Oregon ranked as the top inbound state according to United Van Lines.
None of this suggests Portland is suddenly “back” in the way that word usually gets used.
What it does suggest is more interesting:
Expectations have fully reset
New supply is constrained for years
Demand is proving more resilient than assumed
Capital is beginning to re-engage ahead of consensus
That combination is usually where opportunity exists — not when optimism returns, but when pessimism stops compounding.
So why Development vs. Acquisitions?
Our decision to move forward with development wasn’t about calling a bottom or timing a turn. It was about recognizing where we were in the cycle, understanding how capital was behaving, and positioning ourselves accordingly.
The real inflection point, however, came from local policy. The City of Portland implemented system development charge waivers that materially changed the economics of new construction. Across our current development portfolio, those waivers represent approximately $7 million in savings—roughly ten percent of total project costs removed before construction even begins. That is when projects began to pencil meaningfully at the front end. In addition, the City of Portland enacted a 10-year property tax abatement for newly constructed multifamily housing, creating a meaningful lift to NOI through reduced operating expenses—approximately $2,200 per unit annually. In practical terms, this means that developing a 50-unit building, rather than acquiring an existing 50-unit asset, generates roughly $110,000 in additional annual cash flow.
To be clear, we didn’t know any of this would happen in advance. What we did know was that Portland remains the most affordable major city on the West Coast, that it already suffers from a housing shortage, and that a prolonged pause in new development would eventually lead to a lack of future supply.
As John Templeton famously said, “To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude.”
The goal isn’t to predict the market, but to recognize it early.
Most people become interested in investing when everyone else already is. By the time there is broad agreement, the opportunity is usually gone
Recognizing those principles, we focused on the facts in front of us. New supply was clearly drying up, development activity had slowed materially, and despite its challenges, Portland remains a highly desirable city. It’s a place with real flaws, but also strong fundamentals—and in our view, the long-term positives continue to outweigh the negatives.